Category: Future & Tech

  • Blockchain Chicken Farm: And Other Stories of Tech in China’s Countryside

    Xiaowei Wang

    I bought the book because it had two keywords that interested me – blockchain and China. But as the ‘stories’ went from swine to finally pearls, I realised that the title probably doesn’t do justice to the multiple themes that surface in the book and makes it, a rich and nuanced read. 
    The introduction points us to ‘metronormativity’ – the idea that rural people and culture are ‘backward, conservative and intolerant, and that the only way to live with freedom is to leave the countryside for highly connected urban oases.’ Further, that internet, technology and media will educate and save them by allowing more experiences and chances of a better livelihood. The book is a challenge to all parts of this construct. It also pushes back on binary classifications we employ – digital/physical, natural/man-made and so on. 

    ‘Ghosts in the Machine’ sets the context as we read about how under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980’s, the country began imagining a uniquely Chinese future, and set the ball rolling for the rise of companies like Huawei and Alibaba. In parallel, there’s the rise of TVEs (Town and Village Enterprises) over the prevalent SOEs (State Owned Enterprises), and a potential ‘agrarian transition’ that would result in industrialised agriculture, which would need lesser manpower. This would have social, environmental and political ramifications. 

    ‘Blockchain farm in the middle of nowhere’ touches upon the surveillance state, non-explicit censorship, and ‘the shadowy unease that looms over public conversations.’. It begins with the foodsheds in Shanghai and moves to the contrast (or not) between the dangers of cost-cutting in the food industry, and the gloss of ‘blockchain chicken’ (Bubuji/GoGoChicken). The latter uses ‘a chicken Fitbit of sorts’ on the ankle of chicken which allows a buyer to know the provenance of a chicken, and even see streaming live footage that can be accesses via a QR code! But despite this, the future is uncertain because the tech is on hire, and overhead costs are high. Can blockchain make food safety records tamper-proof by creating a distributed system? Perhaps, but there are many challenges including legibility and thus, access. 

    In ‘When AI farms pigs’, we are introduced to Alibaba’s ET Agricultural Brain that aims to transform agriculture to ‘help create China’s pork miracle’. It brings out how, despite AI’s potential to radically help humans, the current economics of AI makes it a corporate AI model that is all about scale and efficiency. 

    ‘Buffet Life’ explores the alternate careers that Chinese youth are taking up. Case in point – drone operators. This is backed by a (state backed) system that is now bridging the gap between urban and rural education, creating the infrastructure for it and thereby also providing new means of livelihood.

    In ‘Made in China’, there is a very insightful take on what ‘innovation’ means and how it is predominantly evaluated through a Western lens. China is forging its own path in ‘innovation’, trying to break away from cheap products at industrialised scale. ‘Shanzai’ is changing its earlier connotation to an ecosystem that’s open source, and operating at hyper speed, steamrolling through the IP version favoured by the West, and forcing conversations on access and civility. The agricultural version of this approach is Rice Harmony, and its method of collective, organic rice farming. There is also the fascinating tale of Naomi Wu, a self-proclaimed cyborg, and an internet star. 

    ‘No one can predict the future’ is as much about policing as it is about community and identity, and the difference between ‘safety’ and ‘security’. It is interesting how many people working in the domain view surveillance as a technical problem to be solved without thinking of the related consequences. There is also a mention of ‘criminal villages’, the Chinese version of India’s Jamtara. 

    ‘Gone shopping in the mountain stronghold’ relates how ‘Rural Revitalisation’ relies on technology and the internet to build rural entrepreneurship ecosystems. The rural playbook of Taobao is a phenomenon, one that is transforming the rural landscape, literally and metaphorically. Others like JD.com and Pinduoduo are replicating this too. And thanks to this, there is a reverse migration to the village. But many of these platforms are unregulated, resulting in safety issues – everything from getting sick from food purchases to a cab driver raping and killing a passenger. 

    ‘Welcome to my pearl party’ is the one I found most poignant. While the story is about pearl farming in China leading to an MLM sales machinery in the US, the underlying socio-cultural dimension of it – the human need for belonging and care – is what makes it an affecting read. This also features a ‘subversive’ version of Peppa Pig, or rather it becoming a mascot for those who are rebelling against the part of society which has everything and sets the rules – shehui ren culture. 

    While these are all set in different parts of China, there are themes that I could see were universal – ‘…the plague of being old and lonely. As younger generations leave villages, hometowns and even the country to chase after careers and jobs, and the tightening noose of inequality squeezes leisure time, the elderly are left to their own devices.”

    Blockchain, and fantastic perspectives of China were indeed part of the mix, but Xiaowei Wang delivered far more. Travelogue, technology, culture and community, future and sometimes even a bit of contemplative philosophy, I really wouldn’t want to slot this book in any particular genre, and that’s probably what makes it a compelling and fulfilling read.

    P.S. In the penultimate page, the author, sitting in a HongKong bar, amidst the protests, writes about reports of a zootonic disease from mainland China causing flu-like symptoms in humans causing unease because the memory of SARS still being recent!

  • Uncharted

    Margaret Heffernan

    From the time imagination and projection became a part of our survival toolkit, our species has been finding more and more ways to be certain. But as the world becomes increasingly complex, certainty is more difficult to find. ‘We live in a world of irreducible uncertainty‘. So how does one think about the future, at not just the individual level, but at organisation, societal and civilisational levels? Margaret Heffernan moves through history, business narratives, science, and her own relationships to offer perspectives.

    The book is divided into three sections to take us through multiple concepts. The first section uses history to set the context for our ‘addiction to prediction’. We convert history into smooth flows of continuity and manifest destiny whereas events weren’t inevitable but a series of choices, complex and contingent. In addition to pointing out how even professional mathematicians find probability counterintuitive, she also shows how we quickly accept the propaganda of predictions and ‘leave ourselves open to those who profit by influencing our behaviour’. Even in our individual lives, everything from personality tests (MBTI) to genetic profiling is used to typecast despite humans being complex. The big danger is in confusing complex systems for a complicated process. The lessons in this section is that neither history nor genetics nor models can say with certainty how the future will unfold, and what we lose when we try to automate our way into efficiency is the system’s robustness. 

    The second section has a bunch of examples on how people, companies and societies have navigated the future. It brings out the importance of experiments, scenario planning, and creating a shared understanding. Scenarios ‘illuminate the contingencies, contradictions and trade-offs of the real world, where no one interest or single perspective is in control‘. At an individual level, there are some excellent examples of artists whose projects are defined by uncertainty. The Future Library was one I found very interesting – Katie Peterson has planted a thousand trees in a forest outside Oslo. Once a year, for a hundred years, authors will submit manuscripts commissioned for the book. It could be poems, stories, a novel, or even a sentence, but no one else can read it until a hundred years from now! This approach is in stark contrast to the ‘brand you’ concept of fixed positioning. At a broader level, there are examples of ‘cathedral projects’ like CERN, whose by-products have revolutionised multiple industries, and yes, given us the internet too! The Human Genome Project is another example. They are destined to last longer than a single human lifespan, and have to adapt to changing needs, tastes and technologies, relying on human imagination and the willingness to explore, to succeed. ‘They are voyages of discovery in uncharted territory.’ 

    The final section is all about the importance of being human, and coming full circle, how we can prepare ourselves better for the future. Using examples of individuals, companies like Nokia, and a civilisational crisis like AIDS, the author highlights how human relationships helps us solve problems which are uncertain even from a ‘where to begin’ perspective. Human ingenuity manages to create emergent solutions. The penultimate chapter is a fantastic presentation of death as a feature, not a bug, and treats it with dignity and respect. 

    This is a book that creates an excellent narrative for the times. While we extoll AI and its ability to make our lives better, the focus here is the human ability to ask better questions, share ideas, and find solutions. In our search for efficiency and metrics, we tend to forget the creativity and imagination prowess of the human mind that has brought us so far. There are no readymade solutions in the book to tackle an uncertain future, and that is the precise point it makes. It offers perspectives and possible approaches, and despite the tough and diverse subjects it deals in, is optimistic and very accessible.

  • Weapons of Math Destruction

    Cathy O’Neil

    Humans have had biases for the longest while. But they have come a long way from from the simplistic ones that helped the species band together and survive, or even the the heuristics we have applied and continue to use at an individual level. As search engines and social networks move from tools to utilities, we have now begun to see the dark side of “software is eating the world” – when biases and discrimination are being codified into systems, resulting in blind discrimination that widens inequality by preventing people from climbing out of poverty, unemployment, homelessness and all the things that we as society should be ashamed of. 

    The author, thanks to her education and experience, is well placed to write on the subject. She calls the mathematical models or algorithms WMDs – Weapons of Math Destruction. They have three common characteristics – scale, opacity and damage. To elaborate, they typically use data sets to create scoring systems that evaluates people in various ways. Most of these systems are proprietary. The scale at which these systems operate is really large, and therefore the damage they cause is also equally massive. Most of the people affected don’t even realise they’re being discriminated against and sent on a downward spiral. And most importantly, there is no feedback loop to make the system better. 

    The author frames it very well through examples across life stages – how teachers and students are evaluated in schools and universities, how employees – potential and existing – are screened, how online ads for predatory services like payday loans are targeted, how insurance premiums are decided, how law and order systems end up “creating” criminals simply based on location data, and perpetrates injustice, how scheduling software destroys any sense of work-life balance. These are not dry, statistical examples, but backed by stories of actual humans devastated by an unfeeling algorithm, with nearly no chance to work their way out of it.

    In the future, what really stops us reaching “Minority Report” scenarios? Arresting people because they could be potential criminals, screening applicants based on health issues they could have in the future, and so on. And since everything is based on users sharing data, it seems certain that privacy will come at a price. In the past, when greed and business “progress” began to have harmful effects on society, the government stepped in and put laws in place to safeguard us. But now governments themselves use these systems! We still have a chance to work our way out of this and bring back dignity. For instance, the European model, in which data collection must be approved by the user and is opt-in, and the reuse of data is prohibited. 

    But will we? In our efforts to remove biases, we have ended up creating systemic monstrosities that lack empathy, and only focus on efficiencies. Those who learn to game the system profit. Winners keep winning, losers keep losing, as fairness is forgotten because entire business models are built on them. As the author rightly points out, “The technology already exists. It’s only the will we’re lacking.” And that, really, is the problem, because “Algorithms are opinions embedded in code”. An important book for the times we live in, and the future.

  • The Sixth Extinction

    Elizabeth Kolbert

    A pandemic is probably the best time to read a book on mass extinctions. Or not, depending on taste. 

    But this is a book I thoroughly enjoyed, even though I am not really a big fan of nature – plants or animals or for that matter, some humans either! Some of it is because of the many, many things I learned, and some of it is the accessible narrative style of the author – it evoked the sense of curiosity that I had for science in general as a child, and I confess, infused that sense of romanticism in science that I haven’t seen in a long time. 

    It is scientifically interesting to see how concerned we are about the pandemic, when, earlier this century, a species of Chytrid fungi (a genus had to be created for it, and it is called Bd for short) systematically started killing of frogs across continents. Making many of them endangered species. Or the Geomyces destructans, that killed off bats to the tune of 6 million! 

    Until the end of the 18th century, the idea of extinction did not exist. It then moved to a “uniformist” view that each species struggled and vanished. Then the discovery of the asteroid impact happened. The current version accommodates both lines of thought- long periods of nothing happening and then one cataclysmic event. It involves oceans, rising and falling, tectonic shifts, global warming and cooling etc and yes, an asteroid too. On a related note, there is also a small parallel narrative on Darwin, The Origin of Species and how it weighed in on the extinction debate.

    The last 500 million years are divided into three eras, and a lot more periods. While there have been extinctions, in isolation and clusters, and mass extinctions occur every 26 -30 million years, the short list contains only the “big five”. The most famous one is the one that features the asteroid. That was the last one, which happened 66 million years ago, in the End Cretaceous period, leading to the extinction of 75% of species. The ones before were 201 million years ago -that led to the dominance of the dinosaurs, but killed 75% of species that existed then, 252 million years ago – the biggest one that knocked off 96% of all species, 375-360 million years ago – killing 70% of species, and 450-440 million years ago – 60-70% again. The sizes and descriptions of both the tiny organisms and the megafauna that lived, co-existed, and died is fascinating. 

    The name of the book, as you might have guessed, comes from the possibility of the sixth event that could be added to the big 5. From all the evidence so far, humans will most likely be the cause, but the twist is that we could be the victims too. In the context of the larger lifespan of earth, a short while ago, a species created a way to go beyond only the genetic code to store and distribute information. Language. They then found ways to communicate and collective think about and solve “problems”. And we’re here now. 

    The book gives a lot of food for thought, but more importantly, at least to me, invokes a sense of curiosity and awe. A lot thanks to science, and some because of the variety of places she visited to write this book. The moment she narrates, while on a tiny island at the edge of the Great Barrier reef under a starry sky – For a brief moment I felt I understood what it must have been like for an explorer like Cook to arrive at such a place, at the edge of the known world – sums up the effect of the book very well.

  • Indistractable

    Nir Eyal

    Towards the end of the book, the author cites a survey which found that “almost a third of Americans would rather give up sex for a year than part with their mobile phone for that long”. Sex has been hardwired in us by evolution, and it’s a testament to technology that it has managed to hack even that! But then again, there was a time when even the printing press was called the biggest source of distraction. So this isn’t a new story. But we do live in a world in which the attention economy has optimised its notifications and nudges to ensure that it is heard/seen/felt. All the time. Whether we need it or not. It has us hooked and sometimes we don’t even know how much!

    This is the challenge that Nir Eyal writes about in Indistractable. He approaches it with a simple framework of internal and external triggers and distraction and traction (some nifty wordplay, that). The first thing to focus on, he says, is our own motivations – internal triggers. Not just the proximal reasons that are making us distracted, but the root cause. Our distractions are more often than not a way of escaping something we do not want to confront. He also believes we never run out of willpower and warns us against labelling ourselves as “easily distracted” or “addictive personality”. An opinion that I am not sure I agree with.

    The rest of the book is a step by step guide on how to get to an “indistractable” state – from making time for traction (things we value) to taking control of external triggers by various means in personal and professional lives, and in social settings as well as when you’re by yourself. The suggestions are practical and quite doable once you decide that they need to be done. Ironically, the section that I found most interesting was how to inculcate this quality in children. Ironic, because I don’t have any. What made it interesting was the logical approach, one that seemed quite feasible.

    The book keeps it simple, and is a good guide if you find yourself distracted more often than you’d like to be. I have been doing my own wrestling with “staying in the moment” for a while now and found most of the things mentioned a validation of what I try to practice.