Category: Philosophy & Worldview

  • End Times

    Peter Turchin

    If you’ve read Asimov’s Foundation series, you’d know psychohistory – the ‘science’ that predicts the future of humanity at large. Peter Turchin’s End Times is on a similar path, though he does call out the underlying methodology of psychohistory as pseudoscience and in his version, attempts to do it with a lot of data and actual science. The field is cliodynamics, focusing on political integration and disintegration, and state formation and collapse. He and his colleagues have discovered recurring patterns in history over the last ten thousand years, and some common underlying principles on why this happens.

    The book begins with a look at the sources of power and its correlation with wealth. The former is of at least four types – force, wealth, bureaucratic, and ideological. It then takes a quick look at contemporary America, and specifically the reasons for the rise of Trump. I found the parallels with the 1850s, Lincoln, and the Civil war that his election triggered, quite insightful. (it really wasn’t just about slavery, the business and economic interests were the much broader canvas)

    And how does this power dissipate? From his research, the lessons history teaches is that there are four structural drivers of instability – popular immiseration (impoverishment of the working class) leading to mass mobilisation potential; elite overproduction (too many elites vying for too few seats of power and wealth) leading to intraelite conflict; Failing fiscal health and weakened legitimacy of the state; and geopolitical factors. The second is the most reliable predictor.

    With this context, he delves into each of these factors in the subsequent chapters. An interesting point in the popular immiseration is the impact of immigration – how it drives down wages because of the overabundance of labour. In the second- elite overproduction, he quotes Guy Standing on the so-called ‘precariat’-

    It consists of people who went to college, promised by their parents, teachers, and politicians that this will grant them a career. They soon realise they were sold a lottery ticket and come out without a future and with plenty of debt. This faction is dangerous in a more positive way. They are unlikely to support populists. But they also reject old conservative or social democratic political parties. Intuitively, they are looking for a new politics of paradise, which they do not see in the old political spectrum or in such bodies as trade unions.

    And David Callahan –

    As the ranks of the affluent have swelled over the past two decades, so have the number of kids who receive every advantage in their education. The growing competition in turn, has compelled more parents to spend more money and cut more corners in an effort to give their children an extra edge. Nothing less than an academic arms race is unfolding within the upper sections of U.S. society. Yet even the most heroic – or sleazy – efforts don’t guarantee a superior edge.

    He then points to how the two parties in the US have moved away from their original audience and stance, and how ideological fragmentation has progressed so far that any classification has become impossible. And we’re now dominated by radical politics. America is now a plutocracy – economic elites who are able to influence policy with its “structural economic power”. The issues in which they are in disagreement with the common folks always get decided in the elites’ favour. Plutocrats are able to create a vulnerability in democracies because they use their wealth to buy mass media, to fund think tanks, and handsomely reward those social influencers who promote their messages. A three part way of controlling public perceptions of practically anything! The chapter ‘Why is America a plutocracy’ also has an insightful section on why the US didn’t turn out like Denmark despite being at roughly the same place at the beginning of the twentieth century.

    In the last section, he looks at history to understand the possible outcomes for the US in the future- how the trajectory of post USSR Slavic states – Ukraine, Belarus – and Russia differed. He also goes further back to look at examples of states that have survived by taking measures to prevent collapse –
    England in the Chartist period, Russia in the Reform period. In the US now, the Democratic Party is a now of the 10 percent and the 1 percent. And the 1 percent is losing its traditional vehicle – the Republican party, which is increasingly being taken over by right-wing populist factions. Once upon a time, American elites successfully adopted reforms to rebalance the social system. It’s either that or they get overthrown.

    While Turchin does get technical, the narrative is coherent and insightful. It also brings science to the many signs of decay we see around us. Overall, an excellent read, if you’re interested in the broad subject.

    Notes
    1. George RR Martin based Lannisters in GoT on Lancasters in the 1400s
    2. Just as physical contagions were a driver in empires collapsing, idea contagions are in today’s environment (Arab Spring)
    3. After the Civil War, there was Reconstruction, and then the Gilded Age (excess) followed by the Progressive Era (reforms). For two generations after the 1930s the elite proactively did things for improving the conditions of the masses, but from the 1980s, the concentration of wealth began again.

    End Times by Peter Turchin

  • You Will Own Nothing: Your War with a New Financial World Order and How to Fight Back

    Carol Roth

    Carol Roth does a great job of using the title to shock the reader, but once you read the book, you might agree that it is justified. It was at the World Economic Forum that she first heard the prediction that in less than a decade, private ownership would be dead. The book is her research on “You will own nothing and be happy“.

    She calls this a war where three kinds of forces – government and government-related forces, elite power-grabbers and bad actors, and Big Tech are colluding to ensure that they remain on top for the new financial order that will come up. Owning wealth and power.

    She begins with how frontline forces who risked their lives during the pandemic were punished, their livelihoods taken away, for non-compliance with a vaccine mandate. Moving quickly from social acceptance to social credit. Judged by public approval than a court of law. In China, they have already gone quite deep into the Social Credit System, where you’re watched and rewarded (red list)/penalised (black list).

    She uses the history of empires to show the cycles of rise and fall, and how war is usually a catalyst for change and a new financial order. The US began its ascent after WW2, and according to Roth (and data), we are now seeing a decline in the US financial system, which is likely to lead to a shift in power, and or economic and geopolitical chaos. And if we go by GoT, “Chaos is a ladder”.

    She also discusses Peter Thiel’s framework of how good ideas cause bad outcomes through a believers (idea)- racketeers (ROI) – Useful Idiots (ROE, e for ego). Think of climate change and read it as genuine activists – ESG sellers – regular people pandering to their desire for validation and ego by sharing posts/emojis/slogans without really understanding the discourse.

    The next chapters expand on the debasing of the dollar (some insightful charts on its decreasing purchasing power) and the huge concerns on turning it digital – CBDC (central bank digital currency) and how it can be used against the common person’s rights and freedoms. This allows a neat segue into Big Tech and how they have made us dependent, and infringed on our basic rights. Think of getting locked out of mail, social media, payments etc with no easy means of recourse. Most of us don’t really own anything digitally, it’s all on a company’s servers. They would serve as great allies of the government, possibly even overshadowing them with their technical superiority. Wars are almost more cyber than real, after all.

    She then does a deep dive on the various power and money grab mechanisms already underway. ESG, (thanks BlackRock!) for instance, played a crucial role in tanking Sri Lanka’s economy. The increasingly unattainable home ownership in US thanks to corporations, who are helped by cheap capital enabled by the Fed, competing against the common man for real estate. And city administrations who are happy to go along with AirBnB because they pay taxes. Add to this billionaires like Gates and institutions like Harvard (enabled by endowments) buying up farmland, including things like water rights. Now think about it, why wouldn’t private investors start moving water to say, nearest cities, because they think it’s the most efficient use of water?

    Another example is the crazy cost of education and the increasing lack of ROI, thereby creating a population that is always in debt. And guess who’s the one providing these loans – the government! And despite their ‘loan forgiveness’, ultimately it’s the taxpayer footing the bill! A transfer of money from the working class to the college-educated class.

    The final chapter is on how the common man (in the US context) can fight back against all this. While the context is the US, the ideology of capitalism and the alliance of government-corporations-BigTech is a global phenomenon, soon coming to a country near you.

    What was super insightful to me is the nuance of arguments. I had broadly supported the vaccine mandate, Biden, and was not fond of Joe Rogan, but I was forced to think deeply on all this. This is a fantastic read, and I absolutely recommend it.

    Quotes
    “When a social moral code replaces a legal code and gains acceptance it is only a matter of time before those in power want to leverage that dynamic to secure more power for themselves”
    ‘We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office’ ~ Aesop

    You Will Own Nothing

  • The Pathless Path: Imagining a New Story For Work and Life

    Paul Millerd

    I have to admit a little bias here – I started my own journey only a few months ago, and a bunch of things that Paul Millerd has written about in The Pathless Path resonates very well and mimics the thoughts and paths that I have experienced recently. I also share some of his influences in terms of thinkers – Erich Fromm, David Graeber – both of who have had a lot to say about the human condition in the context of work.

    The book is divided into two very broad sections. The first, with six chapters, focuses on the default path. The default is what most of the world does – predictable incomes, predictable lives, “life’s existential fears are traded for certainty”. Paul also quotes Keynes – “it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” And it provides prestige, which as Paul Graham says, is “a powerful magnet that warps even your beliefs about what you enjoy.” However the story is cracking. “You work hard, but get laid off anyway. You have the perfect life on paper, but no time to enjoy it. You retire with millions in the bank, but no idea what to do with your time.”

    He introduces us to his own journey from the default to the pathless across his academic and professional lives, how he figured out the hacks to grow fast, his health crisis, and how he then started thinking about his life and work differently.

    At this point, he goes back in history to understand where our current beliefs and structure about work came from, how work took the space religion vacated, and how the larger narrative of defining and judging people by their profession became a part of culture. He then continues to take us through his own struggles in the default path as values clashed and the lure subsided, but the pressure of making a living continued. He stresses how moving to the pathless path is not a simple story of sudden glory, but rather a series of experiments, deliberate changes, and iterative learning towards a journey that fulfils the self.

    In the second section – the pathless path, the focus is on how one can reimagine one’s life, and address the many barriers that a part of our self comes up with to discourage us – narratives around (lack of) money, creativity, to name the most common ones. He also notes the importance of finding one’s tribe, and designing work in such a way that you love it. His perspective is that ultimately what we want is to be useful to others. In the final chapter, he writes about a couple of things I have spent a lot of time thinking about – the abundance mindset, and playing the long game. Both have the potential to radically change the way one interacts with the world at large.

    From what I understand, Paul went off the default in his 30s, so this is not a midlife crisis-management book. Rather, it’s for anyone who has that little ‘pebble in the shoe’ which tells them that there is a better way of living, and working. The pathless path is exactly that – it is deeply personal, a blueprint doesn’t really exist – you have to arrive at your version yourself. It’s uncomfortable, uncertain, and a movement away from conformity. But you’ll know when the shift happens, and when it does, it’s quite liberating. As per Andrew Taggart, crisis moments lead to “existential openings” which forces us to deal with existential questions. These could be of two kinds – a “way of loss” (loved ones, health job) or a “way of wonderment” (moments of undeniable awe and inspiration). But you don’t necessarily need to wait. It’s never too early, or late.

    Notes
    1. People who face crises often experience ‘post-traumatic’ growth and this manifests as “an appreciation for life in general, more meaningful interpersonal relationships, an increased sense of personal strength, changed priorities, and a richer existential and spiritual life”
    2. “But under the hardness of that armor there is the tenderness of genuine sadness.” ~ Pema Chödrön
    3. Uncertain discomfort < certain discomfort + coping mechanism. Given sufficient coping strategies, people will be willing to tolerate consistent levels of misery for long stretches of time.
    4. Tim Ferriss “fear setting” reflection – what is the change, what are the worst possible outcomes, how can you mitigate them, possible steps/actions to get back to where you are now, what are the benefits, what are the costs of inaction 3/12/months few years
    5. “Misery tax” – the spending an unhappy worker allocates to things that “keep you going and keep you functioning in the job”. e.g. alcohol, expensive food and vacations (Thomas J. Bevan)
    6.”Belief clings, but faith lets go” ~ Alan Watts
    7. There is a kind of status we get from doing impressive things or having impressive traits or skills. In some domains like sports, this works. In the business world, talent is harder to assess, and we tend to use proxies like credentials to determine quality and prestige.
    8. “The problem is that our culture has engaged in a Faustian bargain in which we trade our genius and artistry for apparent stability” ~ Seth Godin
    9. “Critical thinking without hope is cynicism. But hope without critical thinking is naïveté” ~ Krista Tippett

    The Pathless Path

  • Strange Rites: New Religions for a Godless World

    Tara Isabella Burton

    Strange Rites is another book I discovered only thanks to a podcast. I found it a fascinating exploration of how the (almost) post-religion United States is evolving. Folks who call themselves Christians have been steadily decreasing, and ‘Nones’ who claim no affiliation to any organised religion is the fastest growing group. One-third of millennials (and one fourth of all adults) have no affinity to religion. Tara Isabella Burton tries to find out who (or what) is filling the God-sized hole.

    She begins with her personal experience at the McKittrick Hotel, home to the British theatre company Punchdrunk’s production – Sleep No More, an experiential phenomenon that she describes as “equal parts video-game, voyeurism and religious pilgrimage”. It’s a retelling of Macbeth but every part of it is subject to interpretation by the performers and the audience, with the latter also having the option to be part of the ‘play’.

    This serves as a preview of the world of SoulCycle, Korean beauty routines, Gwyneth Paltrow’s juice cleanse, Crossfit, Internet fan fiction, Headspace, and so on. A long list of options from which people can mix their own religious cocktail of spiritual, philosophical, aesthetic and experiential dimensions. It influences not just individual lifestyle but societal politics too.

    The author broadly classifies the non-affiliated into SBNRs (Spiritual but not religious), Faithful Nones (who hunger for something larger than themselves) and Religious Hybrids (who practice a portion of their religion, and supplement it with things outside it). All of them (and us) are looking for what religion originally delivered – meaning, purpose, community, and ritual.

    She then spends a chapter on the war that has been fought on religion within America – the institutional (centred around Church and society) vs the intuitional (centred around the person). And that progression and the heterogenous mixes that happened reflects in the changes in culture and mindset within society during the 60s, 70s and so on.

    And thus, while the new forms of religion aren’t new, the author cites three factors that makes this era different and likely to stick around – the absence of wider demographic pressure, the power of consumer capitalism, and the rise of the internet. While millennials are caught between their lack of belief in their parents’ religion and the political conservatism on societal issues, capitalism finds a way in, helping them create identities and tribes. It will sell us meaning, brand our purpose, custom-produce community, tailor-make rituals and commodify our humanity. That includes a spiritual entrepreneurship course at the Columbia Business School!

    This new age version of religion (spiritualism) has an interesting parallel – the role that the printing press and the spread of mass literacy played for Protestantism is what the internet is doing today for new age movements. From Yahoo Groups for The X Files and Xena to Harry Potter and World of Warcraft, people were no longer bound to their geography to find their tribe. Fan fiction boomed. The author cites two watershed moments which show how ‘fans’ started taking ownership – the call for Rowling to step away from the Harry Potter universe after her fall from grace, and Gamergate, when there was a backlash against a section of gamers who wanted video games to address the interests and concerns of minority players. Though it wasn’t the first of its kind, the movement was the first to get into a large cultural conversation. Many of the players on the reactionary side (against the demand) would later become alt-right/alt-lite celebs.

    Another evident phenomenon is wellness culture, which focuses on self improvement and commoditises self care. It has the fandom and the ‘theology’ of purpose and meaning to back it. The philosophy of SoulCycle, Goop etc have their roots in New Thought, one of America’s earliest spiritual traditions that blended liberal Christianity with Transcendentalism, and the path includes folks like Norman Vincent Peale (The Power of Positive Thinking), and the discourse in the contemporary era even included self care as a revolutionary act against Trump’s America! The other phenomenon that the author brings up is the revival and rise of witchcraft. The number of adherents are over a million. Here too, Trump served as a nemesis, with the larger narrative connecting the rituals of witchcraft to a higher social and spiritual purpose – dismantling toxic and oppressive structures associated with patriarchy, white supremacy and other unjust hierarchies.

    Another massive shift is in social-sexual identities. Though swapping, kink etc existed in the 1900s, many interests and groups were in the closet are now lifestyles accepted by the mainstream. A key role was played by the internet in transforming the modes and rituals of these communities too, accelerating access and consumption. Simultaneously monogamy is receiving a pushback. The 1970s and 80s were the peak time for divorces in the US, that means children growing up then have a fairly dismal view of marriage.

    74% of American millennials now say that “whatever is right for your life or works best for you is the only truth you can know”. While fandom, wellness, witchcraft, sexual utopias all play out, are there organising thoughts that can take the place of religion? The author works out three of them. The first is ‘social justice culture’ – a progressive mix of self care, moral determination through lived experience, and a fight against racism, sexism and other forms of bigotry and injustice. The second is a Silicon Valley based version who work towards an optimised self. Libertarian techno-utopians, rewriting biology and society through ‘hacking’. Despite their cosmetic differences, both groups have much in common. They both have a disdain towards society’s mores, maxims and rules. And both seek self actualisation. And yes, both are viable consumer categories for capitalism. Wokeness, self care and more!

    However it is the third that the author considers the most viable contender, and the most dangerous. Authoritarian, reactionary, materialist, and one that valourises submission to a higher political or biological truth. They find spiritual and moral meaning in primal, masculine images of heroes past. Yes, mostly white. They believe that biological determinism, gender binary, and natural hierarchies are what leads to progress. Not progressivism and political correctness. Jordan Peterson is one of the high priests, and r/TheRedPill forum is an active shrine of the movement. They provide a sense of brotherhood. Meme magic in 4chan, Pepe and Kekism all were connected to the Donald Trump campaign. Many mass shootings and other acts of violence are by graduates of this school of thought.

    Religion and politics have been connected throughout history, but is remarkable to watch the narrative in the contemporary era unfold as the author connects the pieces and lights up the path that got us to where we are. But then again, to learn of something and to learn from something are two different things. In my favourite reads of 2023, and highly recommended if you have any interest in modern society and/or religion/ and/or culture.

    Notes
    1. In 1890, a businessman Elijah Bond patented a “talking board” for mass use. That’s the Ouija board.
    2. Apparently Fifty Shades of Grey started out as fan fiction – based on Twilight’s lead characters!

    Strange Rites

  • Cognitive Fitness: Pain Is Inevitable. How to Alleviate It and Use It to Your Advantage

    Anil Rajput

    Some books just happen to me, this is one of those. It found me. I really liked the framing – cognitive fitness. An analogy based on physical fitness. If I had to sum it all up, I’d say this is a scientific (with a little bit of philosophy) take on mindfulness. Though I am not sure that word is even used once, in the book. In the author’s words, “cognitive fitness is the leadership that holds perceptions, thoughts, emotions, actions, motivations, imagination, and illusory intelligence in such a way that suffering is minimal and happiness is possible.“

    Indeed, as with the Buddha, Anil Rajput is also of the opinion that pain is inevitable. As the second part of the title states, the idea is to alleviate it, and even use it to our advantage. It is interesting that an obsessive desire for pleasure, or an inability to endure pain, are both conducive to pain, not pleasure. Also, the absence of pain is not enough for happiness.

    The book has seven chapters which goes into several related areas. In the first chapter, the author points out the purpose of pain and pleasure – both pain and pleasure are feedback mechanisms, and they aren’t really our end goals, though we don’t always perceive it that way. In general pain motivates you to think, act, and solve a problem, while pleasure tells you that you’re on the right path. This feedback can be flawed too, for instance, the instant pleasure of drug abuse actually creates long term pain! This chapter also brings up the complexity of individual, social, and natural aspects of life, as well as nihilism and its inherent contradiction.

    The second chapter shifts focus to our bounded brain and its component parts, pitched against the world of infinite information it can never completely grasp. And thus, the inevitability of illusions and ignorance, including ones in perception, cognition, and emotion that emerge from the imperfect information processing of the neural circuits. We fill in details where we don’t have any, and our ignorance also makes us overconfident. He points out how animals never commit suicide. Our evolution beyond survival seems to have given us this unique concept.

    The third chapter is about the psychology of pain and pleasure, the deception of our own emotions, and how pain can be actually used to get clarity. This chapter has a very interesting portion on the life cycle of pleasure – desire (wanting) that might lead to happiness (if we end up liking what we desired – we need not), and how that happiness decreases over time due to habituation and might even disappear, which then leads to the next desire. The hedonistic treadmill. “Desire is wanting, not liking, and that makes all the difference.“

    Psychological pain is an indication that our subjective map of the world needs a revision. The good news is that the brain does have a powerful cognitive immune system, which reduces the effects of suffering – self-affirmation, self-deception, positive illusions, dissonance reduction and defence mechanisms. But it is interesting that the brain focuses more on negatives than positives -because it was essential to save us in the early days of humanity, as compared to say, the pleasure of say, a better mate. We could always have the latter later!

    The important point raised in this chapter is how the ability to endure pain is a requirement to minimise it! Think of it exactly like the muscle you exercise, so as to strengthen it. Except, you wouldn’t go looking for pain, but enduring it and learning from it when it appears is important. The key antidotes to pain are hope, equanimity and courage, which take us away from the fear and panic that lies behind the pain. When we think coolly, we realise that from a survival perspective, the latter is needed only in a physical fight or flight. The rest is emotional, and we can learn to manage it.

    Chapter 4 is about how the brain can be its own worst enemy, and we need to be able to control it to some extent to flourish. This chapter has an interesting portion on conditioning – classic, which is a response to a stimulus (a soldier who returns from war has anxiety when hearing a helicopter even within a safe city) and operant, which is learned by punishment and reward (kid being rewarded for good behaviour). We also learn from observation, and it can be implicit or explicit.

    This chapter also points out how the sub-conscious brain is built for speed and is therefore also prone to wrong judgment. Interesting that our memory can be implicit or explicit. The former is the collection of procedural memory (cognitive and motor skills) and priming (perception enhanced by stimulus). Explicit memory is divided into episodic memory (your experiences) and semantic memory (your knowledge). We make our maps of the world early – a subjective, simple and limited map of the objective, complex and infinite universe. A map critical to make sense of the world. But many times, we find it difficult to change in the face of a challenge, and facts supporting it.

    The next chapter is about the psychology of physical action, the efficiency of cognitive action, and the importance of a subjective purpose and meaning, which motivates us to face the chaos and uncertainties. This also prevents our emotions being hijacked by fear and panic. In this context, it is interesting that rewards are of two kinds – consummatory (moment) and incentive (better future). It is also interesting that when mechanical skills are required, thinking about the reward betters performance, whereas when cognitive skills are required, that thinking might derail us. This is especially so because in many cases, the rewards are not completely in our hands. Only the effort is.

    Chapter 6 is about the importance of focus and how meditation can help. And the final chapter is about how knowledge acquisition on a regular basis is the first step to taking some amount of control over all this.

    As he rightly points out, “we live in a socioeconomic world with a biological body, among other known and unknown things, and problem in our life can be because of multiple factors in multiple domains, many of which may or may not be in our direct or indirect control.” And that is why cognitive fitness is important.

    I really liked ‘the book Cognitive Fitness for the material and perspectives it contains. However, I do think, it could have done with a better editor. That doesn’t take away from the content though. It’s in my long list of 2023’s favourite reads.

    Cognitive Fitness by Anil Rajput