Certain, simple frames

I read an article recently on decision making, which among other things wrote about how instinct could beat analytical thinking. An insightful heuristic that I found in it was this – ..if you are in an uncertain world, make it simple. If you are in a world that’s highly predictable, make it complex.

While the article focused on decision making in the business context, I could relate to it in the personal context. I see the world at large as an uncertain and complex place, and have spent a lot of time in the last few years trying to contain its influence on my own life. It has been an evolution. The expectations frame  I have written about does a fairly good job of reducing the variables, but it isn’t perfect. There are people and events that frustrate me, I sometimes lose my cool, and my remorse later doesn’t really change anything for anyone, including me. (example)

Over the last year or two, I have managed to find out what these lapses -of-reason events have in common – my fear of a particular event upsetting my “plan”. The immediate plan in question could be just the one of say, getting to office, but I’d only be affected if it had implications on the plan. The plan happens to be our (D and me) financial independence. In my own way, I have been trying to reduce the world’s uncertainties to risks, and thus make life relatively more simple. But, even as I lessen the wants to what we really desire, and even as I hedge the risks to the plan, there are limitations. At least, what I had managed did not give me enough confidence to be unfazed by the events. And thus, when I fear that the plan is at risk, I push back, and thus the lapses. The fears, I have later realised were exaggerated and more perceived than real, but that’s hindsight.

The last couple of weeks, however, gave me two more inputs that seemed to have helped me quite a bit. The first was courtesy the book I was reading – Matt Ridley’s The Evolution of Everything. It showed me how limited the implications of single instances were in the larger scheme of things. Grand designs have had short shelf lives, and it is the emergent nature of evolution that has thrived. But one might wonder, does it really work the same way in a single human life as well, given the relatively short timeframe of our lifespans? Turns out, it does, and that’s the second. My friend P gave me an invaluable tip when I spoke to her around the same time I was reading the book – “imagine the significance of the event 5 years from now”. She was right. There have been several “life will never be the same again” instances in the four decades of my existence. And yet, here I am, more content than otherwise. Things may not have gone exactly as planned, but things have worked out.

I remember an instance, only a few years ago, when I was given a lift in a Merc. When it was time for me to get out, I tried to open the door, but since I wasn’t familiar with the door mechanics, finally resorted to random pushes and pulls! The owner of the car gently tapped my shoulder and said “Don’t struggle. The system has its own way, but we’ll get you out.”

That seems like a lesson for life at large. The system of the world is determined to free me of my notions of will! That is strangely troubling, and comforting. The low impact framing helps me appreciate and reconcile the uncertainty so I don’t panic. The five year frame additionally helps make my reactions less agitated, and more conscious and humane.