• Certain, simple frames

    I read an article recently on decision making, which among other things wrote about how instinct could beat analytical thinking. An insightful heuristic that I found in it was this – ..if you are in an uncertain world, make it simple. If you are in a world that’s highly predictable, make it complex.

    While the article focused on decision making in the business context, I could relate to it in the personal context. I see the world at large as an uncertain and complex place, and have spent a lot of time in the last few years trying to contain its influence on my own life. It has been an evolution. The expectations frame  I have written about does a fairly good job of reducing the variables, but it isn’t perfect. There are people and events that frustrate me, I sometimes lose my cool, and my remorse later doesn’t really change anything for anyone, including me. (example) (more…)

  • The Rise of the Robots

    Martin Ford

    The bad news – it would seem that the robocracy is inevitable. The good news – this is a very well written book!
    In most robotics and AI narratives, what gets lost is the nuance as folks very firmly root themselves in polarising camps on the future of our species. The reason why this book worked for me was because its focus was less on the dramatic headline (what) and more on why it would happen. It is a very well researched book and sets about debunking popular schools of thought in a very clinical manner. The author is also wise enough to call out the things he is not sure of and mention alternate points of view, as well as objective enough to not fall for the hype of everything that’s new and supposedly disruptive.

    Though he does begin with the now ascertained fact that the first wave of automation will take away the routine and predictable jobs, he also warns that it won’t stop there. Even what we would call the higher end jobs will be safe only for a while longer. He is clear that this is a wave of disruption different from what we have seen before because the cognitive abilities that get developed will be replicable and scalable. He also demolishes a couple of currently popular coping mechanisms – consistent re-skilling, and man-machine collaboration.

    The second half of the book focuses on the economic and societal implications of the rise of the robots. He predicts the fall of middle class demand as well as economic mobility, as incomes stagnate or disappear completely, and warns that economic growth would not be sustainable since robots cannot be expected to be consumers, and the plutocracy (top 5% of the population) which has the money can only consume so much!

    The solution he believes in is some version of a universal income which would ensure the participation of a larger segment of the population and give some semblance of prosperity to everyone. But he also sees several challenges in execution.

    Beyond the broader narrative, there are some fascinating statistics and anecdotes – the development of Watson, the scarily increasing time it takes for employment to regain its original levels after a recession, the sale price of Internet behemoths (YouTube, Instagram, Whatsapp) framed as a cost/employee, and so on.

    While the outcomes may not really be palatable to anyone who belongs to the species, it doesn’t take away from what a fascinating read this is!

  • Oslo

    Continued from Tromso

    Days 5,7,11,12

    As you might notice, those days are a bit of a hotchpotch. Theoretically, Oslo was our base for the travels within Norway, but in reality, that amounted to very little time in the city itself. We first landed in Oslo from Tallinn on the afternoon of the fifth day of our travel. Our first agenda was a lot of housekeeping. We changed the currency at the airport, bought ourselves a 7 day city Ruter pass, and then had to wait a while before we got a train to Oslo S. Before we get to that, a bit about the pass. We had got ourselves a single zone pass, but to get to and from the airport, you need to get an additional ticket. The pass itself is a card you can buy at the airport, and there are self serve kiosks at all stations where you can make these additional purchases. If you’re traveling posh, you could try the Flytoget train. Higher frequency, but costlier.

    We reached Oslo S (the central station) in just over 20 minutes, and by simply following people, found ourselves inside a mall. Maps told us that this was the Byporten mall. This was good news because our stay was at Scandic Byporten, chosen specifically because of this location. After some unplanned exploration, we found the entry to the hotel, which is inside the mall! The rooms were functional but comfortable.

    Our original plan was to catch the sunset from the Opera House but we were well past sunset time. So we decided to head to Amundsen Brewery for dinner via Karl Johan’s gate and the Grand Hotel. The brewery was packed and we just about got a seat at the bar. That didn’t stop us from trying out a fiskegryte (fish stew) and an Amundsen burger with the brew! Early next morning, after a great (complimentary) breakfast at Egon, right next to the hotel, we caught the flight to Bergen. 

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  • Tromso

    Continued from Bergen

    Days 8 -11

    Tromso was the star of the trip because it featured the event that was the raison d’être of the entire vacation. We reached the airport at around 11 AM and caught a Flybussen to the city. For a change, we bought tickets on board – 100 NOK pp. If you’re willing to wait, there are city buses too (#40, 42) that will get you to the city at half the price but in double the time. The journey took us half an hour and we were dropped right in front of our hotel – Scandic Ishavshotel. The check in was only at 3PM, so we dropped our luggage in a maze of its brethren! We had chosen the hotel for the superb views it offered. We walked around a bit taking in the excellent view outside before lunch.

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  • Bergen

    Continued from Tallinn

    Days 6,7

    We landed in Oslo in the afternoon, and flew to Bergen the next morning. More on Oslo in a different post. The flight took less than an hour. Bergen was a magical sight even before we landed. Our first view of it was a series of colourful “toy” buildings, nestled amongst gigantic blocks of ice and dark swathes of water.

    A bus from the airport, which we already had tickets for, took us to very near our hotel in about 30 minutes. D was floored, literally, soon as we got out of the bus. Walking on ice is tricky business. The Thon Rosenkrantz is just off Bryggen, and once again we got lucky with the room being ready though we were early.

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