Author: manu prasad

  • In Code we Trust

    Eugene Wei’s TikTok and the Sorting Hat is a splendid read on many counts. It provides some excellent perspectives on tech companies’ crossovers across WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich, Democratic) and non-WEIRD countries like China and India, made complicated by the culture difference. This serves as the context setting for TikTok’s rise in the US, and some deep chronicling on how this came to be, while juxtaposing it against social networks like Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter. On an aside though, all of these networks have found varying degrees of success in India. Meanwhile, he points out that TikTok is not really a social network, because instead of a social graph, it plays on an interest graph that it builds from the user’s reactions. All of this makes for some excellent reading. But what really caught my attention was this – 

    in some categories a machine learning algorithm significantly responsive and accurate can pierce the veil of cultural ignorance. Today, sometimes culture can be abstracted.

    A meta example of this appears at the end of the post when he visits the Newsdog. At that point it was the top news app in India, and it was built by a Beijing-based startup. Around 40 male Chinese engineers, none of whom could read Hindi!

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  • Metaverse: Get a second life

    What’s real?

    I read The Real-Town Murders around the same time last year. It is set in England in the near future, or at least partly so, because it also features Shine, “the immersive successor to the internet” into which people are happily plugged in.

    More recently, in “Why is this interesting?“, I learnt of Roblox, apparently used by three-fourths of all 9- to 12-year-old kids in the United States at the moment. It’s more than a gaming platform, it is a single digital location that now offers all her old activities: playground, schoolyard, theater, and mall all in one. Thanks to the pandemic, and the digitisation that it has fast tracked, an entire generation might have a different definition of “real”. In the real world of adults, gaming is on a tear, and many reports claim that AR and VR are on the cusp of massive adoption. To note that Snapchat is the king among social networks for a particular generation.

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  • Nike: Big shoes to fill

    It has been just over a year since Nike celebrated the  30th anniversary of its “Just Do It” campaign with a series of ads, featuring athletes including Colin Kaepernick, and triggered a controversy. I wrote then, about Nike’s “skin in the game” approach to brand messaging, and argued that it was perfectly placed to polarise and reap dividends in a world of attention-scarcity. But..

    Woke might make you broke!

    One year later, a (rightfully) sharp post on Pando alerted me to how the NBA got embroiled in the Hong Kong protests conversation, thanks to Daryl Morey, General Manager for the Houston Rockets tweeting his support. China vs NBA resulted. The NBA apologised. Nike pulled its Houston Rockets merchandise from five stores in Beijing and Shanghai (via). It didn’t stop there. LeBron James, refusing to be left out, waded in by stating that Morey was misinformed. Thanks to Nike’s $1 billion lifetime association with LeBron, that dragged the brand further into it. As per USA Today Nike’s business in China from June 1, 2018 to May 31, 2019 is upwards of $6 billion, and has doubled in the last 5 years, while remaining flat in the US. The stakes are high. (more…)

  • vs Amazon

    I had an interesting conversation with a start-up founder recently, one whose business had received multiple rounds of funding and is scaling well. Our chat soon moved into listing on Amazon/other horizontals, and I was reminded of my post from earlier this year – The Shrinking Shelf Life of Ecosystems. I had written how the advantages of dominating the triumvirate – distribution, product and brand – now have a shrinking shelf life.

    I had taken DTC brands as an example of this. But while that is relatively true and there are enough unicorns around, in absolute terms, the distribution might of Amazon and other horizontals continues to be formidable. In this insightful post – Bonsai Brands – Simon Andrews explains that while it might be “easy” to get about $50m, the journey to $100m and beyond gets tougher because efficiencies start maxing out. They could remain viable businesses at a certain scale. (more…)

  • AI: Artificial Instincts

    In Regression Planning, I wrote on whether we could re-learn the skills we have outsourced if events force us to. I read The Book of M recently, and it led me in a different direction on the same subject. The book is fiction set in a dangerous future, where people lose their shadows. What starts as a curiosity takes a dangerous turn when they realise that with the shadow goes memories. All kinds of memories – from their life thus far to the knowledge that they have to eat to survive. The extreme case is forgetting how to breathe. Imagine feeling suffocated and ultimately dying when all that’s needed is to draw a breath. Yes, it’s extreme and yes, it’s fiction. And isn’t that just instinct, you would ask. Yes, again.

    Yuval Noah Harari writes in”21 lessons from the 21st century” about how in March 2012, three Japanese tourists in Australia drove their car into the Pacific Ocean, thanks to their unwavering trust in the GPS. Apparently it kept saying it would navigate them to a road! You could shake your head and quote Einstein on the infiniteness of human stupidity, but I don’t think it’s that simple. A better question to ask would be why they didn’t trust their intuition.

    We all have intuitions and intelligence that we develop over a period of time. We become smart, or that’s how it’s supposed to work! But is that really so now? The smartphone was only the first step. Devices and even ambient environments are becoming smart. In a few decades we have moved from machines that help in physical tasks to systems that are taking over cognitive tasks, something Kevin Kelly has written about in The Inevitable. We’re increasingly outsourcing intelligence. The silver lining is that we’re at least trying to ensure it stays comprehensible to us!

    Instagram, Facebook, Tinder, Spotify, Netflix, Amazon – everything is a feed of recommendations, whether it be social interactions, music, content or shopping! Once upon a time, these were conscious choices we made. These choices, new discoveries, their outcomes, the feedback loop, and the memories we store of them, all worked towards developing intuition. Beneath the cognitive skills we display externally is the wiring, and as the saying goes, Neurons that fire together, wire together. I think we’re now in the process of firing intuition and outsourcing it to algorithms. I don’t know what will happen first – advances in cognitive neuroscience, or the outsourcing. The hope is that they will happen in parallel and we will make choices about them after conscious reasoning.

    Intelligence, intuition and instincts. The journeys in the first two are what have gotten the third hardwired into our biology and chemistry. When we cut off the pipeline to the first two, what happens to the third, and where does it leave our species? What is the organism that has artificial instincts?