Author: manuscrypts

  • We, The Citizens: Strengthening the Indian Republic

    Khyati Pathak

    Every day we look around and blame the government for not doing the things they are supposed to do, and for being overbearing on things like taxation. We The Citizens is a wonderful little book (176 pages) that explains why things are the way they are. Full of wit and wisdom on subjects we don’t think about enough, but are important. I think the authors have done a great job of making the complex interplay of state, market, and society understandable, and that includes the illustrations that elevate the narrative many a times. A graphic narrative that decodes how public policy works (and could work) in the Indian context.

    The state is good at employing force, but isn’t very efficient. The market is good at driving efficiency, but is not concerned with ensuring equity. Society is best suited to deal with behavioural changes, but it is prone to majoritarianism. The entire system is a maze of checks and balances to achieve progress while not allowing any of the elements to go out of control. The book delves into how each of these function, and should function.

    The state, for instance has a toolkit of at least eight things from doing nothing to nudging to playing umpire to marginally/drastically changing incentives and so on but doesn’t always employ the right one. Munger’s “Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome” brilliantly manifests in these explorations. The book provides an excellent framework to think about this based on axes of extent of intervention and state capacity. The government can fail in many ways, and the taxpayer pays for these mistakes. The best part about the book is how it uses examples to (literally) illustrate these mistakes, and how they can be avoided. All delivered with some fantastic humour.

    Why are we a democratic republic and not just a democracy? Because while democracy gives the state legitimacy on coercion, the republic (constitution) guarantees the rule of law. What is the difference between a nation, state and government? The nation is an imagined community, where people don’t know each other but are still willing to sacrifice for. On the other hand, a state is a political entity. The government is the temporary manager of the state. What are public and common goods? Public goods are goods that are non-excludable and non-rival. (e.g. a lighthouse which everyone can use and its usage by one person doesn’t mean another cannot use it) On the other hand, common goods are non-excludable but rival (e.g. fish in the sea). This is why only the government produces public goods. These are the kind of significant nuances that the We The Citizens uncovers.

    I cannot stress how accessible this book is. Plain English, relatable examples, and frameworks that can be applied even in other contexts. Like many good things in life, I discovered We The Citizens courtesy the better half. I’d highly recommend this to anyone even remotely curious about how the ‘system’ works. If you’re not, this can actually get you interested.

    We, The Citizens

  • Bologna

    We fell in love with home-delivered food to the extent that we had to visit the Whitefield version of Bologna. The good news is that for a change, meeting one’s heroes was not a disappointment. And therefore no more home deliveries, dine-in is the way to go when it comes to Bologna. The first time we visited, we chose the balcony seating with a view of the road. Perfect lunch spot for the December weather. The second visit was more recent, introducing the place to friends, and the cosy indoor seating was perfect.

    Bologna Whitefield

    We began with a White wine sangria pitcher which made its way into glasses before I could take out the phone for a pic! I missed the Zuppa di Bologna as well because I was famished. 🤦 But for want of a better word, the Italian herb-infused chicken broth with Mascarpone & Parmesan cheese was soothing. A great start.

    Speaking of start, we tried a couple of starters – Pollo Ripieno di Formaggio in fillo and the Crostini di Bologna. The first is a filo roll stuffed with herb and pesto-infused chicken, and had a mix of great textures. The Crostini tastes just as it looks – a burst of flavours from the chicken, bacon, mushrooms and Mozzarella complemented by that excellent bread.

    Bologna Whitefield

    We loved both the pizzas we tried. The Pepperoni with a delicious tomato sauce, and the Ai Funghi e Salsicce which had a bunch of ingredients – chicken sausage, bacon, olives, mushroom and mozzarella, all of which worked together beautifully.

    Bologna Whitefield

    The Spaghetti Aglio Olio would never be my first choice anywhere, but this one was flavourful enough for me to not complain. The Cappellacci (means ‘little hats’, and named after the hats from where it originated) Di Bologna, I’d gladly recommend any time. Great sauce.

    Bologna Whitefield

    There were four and a half people sharing all this, which meant that we had space for desserts! The Bomba di Cioccolato is just a fancy name for the humble lava cake, which is great for kids. But you should go for probably the best Tiramisu in Bangalore.

    Bologna Whitefield

    A meal for two with a couple of glasses of wine, a starter and a couple of main course dishes would land you in the Rs.3000 range, but it is easily worth the money and the ambience. The staff is pleasant, prompt and helpful. We’ll be regular visitors for sure.

    Bologna, No:921, Belathur Village, Kadugodi Post

  • The Coming Wave: AI, Power and the 21st Century’s Greatest Dilemma

    Mustafa Suleyman, Michael Bhaskar

    Co-founder of first DeepMind (the company behind a couple of massive leaps in AI – AlphaGo, AlphaFold, acquired by Google), then Inflection AI and now (before the book published, I think) CEO of Microsoft AI, I think there are few better people than Mustafa Suleyman to write about AI. And I suspect there will be few better moments than now. The Coming Wave was a book I was looking forward to reading, and it didn’t disappoint.

    The book is divided into four sections. The first looks at the history of technology and how it spreads. The second gets into the detailing of the coming wave – two general purpose technologies – AI and synthetic biology, and associated technologies like robotics and quantum computing. This section also goes into the features and incentives that drive them. Part 3 takes a side step into the political implications of this on the nation state, the only institution that can temper the wave. The last section looks at what is the ‘containment problem’ – a wave of technology is near impossible to contain, history has ample proof, but can we still take a shot at it.

    In the first section of The Coming Wave, Suleyman shows how technology has a clear, inevitable trajectory: mass diffusion in great rolling waves. New discoveries are used by people to make cheaper food, better goods, more efficient transport etc. As demand grows, competition increases, the technology becomes better and cheaper, and easier to use. From farming to the internet, history has enough examples. A big challenge is that the inventor has no way of knowing the nth order consequence (the ‘revenge effects’ of technology – fridge makers didn’t start out with the intent to punch a hole in the ozone later), and once a technology is out there, there is very little we can do to contain it. From fossil fuel emissions to opioid abuse to space junk, this is the story. The only partial exception is nuclear weapons.

    There is a fascinating story in the beginning of the second section on DQN, an algorithm the DeepMind team created to play the game Breakout, and it discovered a strategy that most humans didn’t think of. The trailer for AlphaGo. The section also goes deep into synthetic biology and robotics. Apparently, one can buy a benchtop DNA synthesiser for $25k.

    But this section is even more important because it brings out the four intrinsic features of this wave that compound the containment problem. One, it has a hugely asymmetric impact. Which this has happened before (cannon vs a large set of people) it has been scaled massively with the internet and now AI (a single algorithm can hold massive systems to ransom). Two, they are developing fast – hyper-evolution – providing very little time to react, let alone regulate ((look at cars vs the frequency of the versions of GPT). Third, they are omni-use (AI can be applied in multiple domains, and can come up with compounds for cure or as poison). And fourth, its degree of autonomy is beyond any previous technology.

    Add to that the incentives and the containment problem just gets magnified. Geopolitics and the power involved, a global research system that has rituals rewarding open publication – curiosity and the pursuit of new ideas, financial gains, and the the most human one of all – ego.

    The third section of The Coming Wave is on the impact of all this on the nation state. He calls out that technology is not value-neutral, and quotes Langdon Winner, “Technology in its various manifestations is a significant part of the human world. Its structures, processes and alterations enter into and become part of the structures, processes and alterations of human consciousness, society and politics.” From the printing press to weapons, tech has helped build the nation state. My favourite chapter in this is ‘Fragility Amplifiers’ – from robots with guns to lab leaks to 3d printing everything, even people with good intent can cause things to go wrong. “What does the social contract look like if a select group of ‘post humans’ engineer themselves to some unreachable intellectual or physical plane?”Add to it massive job displacement, and other social issues and the nation state faces challenges far beyond the standard issues of the day. The possibilities are a continuum from an extremely powerful nation state to completely decentralised groups of individuals.

    In the last section, he looks at nine ways, working in cohesion to provide some sort of containment. Technical safety, audits, using choke points, maker responsibility to build in controls from the start, aligning business incentives with containment, helping governments build tech to regulate tech, international alliances for regulation and mitigation, a culture of sharing errors and learning from them, public input to make this all accountable. The tenth point he makes is that there is no silver bullet that will take us to any permanent solution. It is a narrow path which humanity must walk on. That probably is the biggest lesson.

    I found The Coming Wave full of great insights and perspectives, and written in a way that makes it accessible to those outside tech. An important book for everyone to read since it’s a pragmatic look at what the future holds for the species. Part of my 2024 favourites list.

    Notes
    1. (Life + Intelligence) x Energy = Civilisation
    2. Liverpool’s MP William Huskisson was killed under the wheels of the locomotive during the opening of the Liverpool – Manchester line, the first passenger railway because the crowd had no idea of the machine’s power!
    4. How the stirrup changed everything. Fused the rider to the horse, and the ability to power through. It became a leading offense strategy, and changed Europe. Horses – church land for rearing- ties to the kingdom – feudalism.
    3. Today, no matter how wealthy you are, you simply cannot buy a more powerful smartphone than is available to billions of people
    4. Primum non nocere – “first, do no harm”. (Hippocratic Oath)

    The Coming Wave

  • Pre-tirement

    First published on LinkedIn

    I chose pre-tirement a year and a half ago, in my mid-40s. Yep, it’s a thing – the space between full-time work and retirement – a reduced workload in return for $ that meet my needs and some wants. Monika Halan’s recent column reminded me of the real question I grappled with: “Will I outlive my money or will my money outlive me?”

    I agree with her take on the learn-earn-burn model and sketchy finfluencers, but I don’t think the classic career peak-in-your-50s idea will last. Here’s why.

    1. Short-termism is now baked into most companies. Layoffs, shrinking business cycles, and the fast pace of disruption mean you’re constantly solving new problems with new tools. That’s largely fluid intelligence, which peaks around 40. Until now, we’ve extended careers beyond 40 largely with crystallised intelligence (experience, wisdom), but AI is catching up with both. Soon, someone younger, faster, and AI-enabled might do the same work cheaper.

    2. That also means even a decade-long career may be a stretch. Once humans turn knowledge into rules, rules become algorithms, automation happens and jobs disappear. Damn AI learns!

    3. This shift is especially brutal for Gen X and Millennials who weren’t prepared for it. Add subpar savings, unhealthy lifestyles, and rising stress, and mental and physical health issues are inevitable. And no, companies won’t support you.

    Since I’m aged enough to offer unsolicited advice: if you’re in your 30s/40s, aim for pre-tirement by 50. Think of it as a Pascal’s wager. Better to have financial freedom so you can grow on your terms, and are not forced to make money-driven choices.

    The path? Good old compounding – of intelligence, wealth, health, and relationships.
    1. Stay curious. Keep learning. Solve new problems to keep your mind sharp.
    2. Spend and invest consciously. Don’t finance today’s wants at the cost of tomorrow’s needs.
    3. Stay healthy, not just fit – body and mind. Saves you meds money and lets you enjoy your freedom.
    4. Find people in whose company you can be yourself. It aids the above three too.

    In the near and mid-term, AI’s quick evolution will question not just work’s efficacy as an income provider, but also its ability to deliver a sense of purpose. On an existential scale, I think the second will cause more damage.

  • Glucose Revolution: The life-changing power of balancing your blood sugar

    Jessie Inchauspé

    Glucose Revolution is another one of those books that I wasn’t even aware of, but came in via a referral, and I believe will actually make a difference in my life. Jessie Inchauspé, also known as Glucose Goddess, does a fantastic job of showing a way out of the clutches of glucose imbalances which are an underlying cause of many health issues – from cardiovascular diseases to PCOS to acne and even mood swings.

    The reason why I loved this book are many. One, it’s not just a lot of theory. She combines lived experiences (of herself and others in the community), scientific research, and experiments (to validate) to show how it works. Two, she layers that with the overall science behind why they work that way. Three, she does so in the most accessible manner. And finally, she doesn’t just point out the problems, she also provides solutions and paths to address them.

    The book is divided into three parts. The first explains the origins of glucose and why it is important. While we colloquially call them all carbs, glucose, fructose, sucrose, starch, fibre are all varied forms and have different impact.

    The second describes how dysregulated glucose levels and glucose spikes affects us in the short-term and the long-term. From hunger pangs at one end to worsened cognitive function at the other. During glucose spikes, the mitochondria quickly get more glucose than they need, some glucose gets converted into fat, and more importantly, molecules called free radicals are released into our system. When there are too many of these, it results in oxidative stress, a driver of heart disease, Type 2 diabetes etc. Glucose also glycates other molecules, damaging them forever. Wrinkles, cataracts etc.
    The combination of all these result in inflammation, and chronic inflammation is the source of most chronic illnesses we get.

    When we have excess glucose in our body, the pancreas sends out insulin to store it and keep it out of circulation. Liver, muscles and conversion into fat are the three ways it is done. That last bit is how we gain weight. The stored glucose is used when mitochondria needs it, and when glycogen (the glucose in the liver and muscles) gets diminished, our fat reserves come into play. But this cannot happen when insulin is high. (read notes for more on this) There are explanations for why and how each kind of disease related to this happens.

    Part 3 is a set of ten (simple) hacks to flatten the glucose curves (reducing glycaemic variability). The first and most useful hack is the order of eating your meal. Veggies (fibre) first, proteins and fats next, and starch/carbs last. Fibre reduces the action of alpha amylase, the enzyme that breaks starch into glucose, it slows down gastric emptying, and creates a mesh which makes it difficult for glucose to get into the bloodstream. My second favourite hack was #7 – drinking apple cider vinegar before eating sweets. Acetic acid in vinegar temporarily inactivates alpha amylase.

    Glucose Revolution is a fantastic book because of its actionable insights and the accessibility. Highly recommended. Having said that, I have also recently read some critique which you might want to consider before picking it up.

    P.S. My own experience after nearly a year of trying this is that first, I got an immediate reduction of HbA1c from 6.3 to 5.9 and was able to sustain it for about 8 months. Since then, it has gotten back to 6.3 but there are many variables and I am still trying to eliminate them one by one.

    Notes
    1. Any food made from flour has starch
    2. We like sweetness because back in the Stone Age the taste of sweetness signalled foods were safe (there are no foods that are sweet and poisonous). It gives us a dopamine hit.
    3. Mitochondrial stress causes cells to lose their smooth shape. The lining becomes bumpy and fat particles get stuck more easily. LDL (B) does exactly this. If an when cholesterol gets oxidised (happens when more glucose, fructose, insulin are present), it creates plaque. Triglycerides become LDL (B). A good measurement is triglycerides/HDL. If it’s less than 2, great
    4. Insulin treatment brings down glucose temporarily but is harmful in the long run.
    5. Sugar is sugar, whether it comes from fruit or table sugar. Relatively the first is better.
    6. Similar story with whole grains. Dark bread/ seed breads are relatively better.

    Glucose Revolution