Digi-Capital claims that by 2020, Virtual and Augmented Reality combined would have hit $150 bn, eclipsing mobile. What is interesting is that a recent Juniper report predicts an $80 bn market for wearables by 2020. (via) If I read that together, by 2020 we would have witnessed three interface cycles – mobile, wearables and AR+VR. The shelf life of interfaces is shrinking, much like other business cycles. In fact, in Trendwatching’s No Interface trend brief, you can get a preview of this. I’d think that by 2020 web access would be much better than what we have now, and with other technology like IoT advancing sufficiently, we would be poised for ambient interfaces to consume and create what we do on the web and mobile now.
It is widely believed that Google is only a challenger in the mobile and wearable domains – to Facebook and Apple, despite Android. With Facebook’s Oculus move and Glass’ demise, it would seem that the interface that follows the two above would also see a fight. In an insightful post, Ben Evans asks “What does Google need on mobile?” He notes that all of Google’s play is about reach – to collect and surface data. Mobile, and specifically apps, challenge this and create a world of perfect complexity. He ends with saying that Google needs to win at search, whatever that means and wherever and however far from PageRank that leads you. Christian Hernandez goes further in his post ‘Into the Age of Context‘. He points out that the glue that connects mobile, social and sensor trends is data, but to take it to the next level, it needs machine learning and AI. He sees Google Now as the perfect example of The Age of Context.
At the 2015 Davos World Economic Forum, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt caused a flutter by saying that the internet will disappear. He explained that it will disappear as a distinct and distinctive thing. Ambient internet leading to ambient interfaces. In a Wired post, Kevin Kelly writes that back in 2002, when he questioned Larry Page on the viability of search as a business model, the reply he got was “Oh, we’re really making an AI.” Later in the post, he shares a perspective that search is just a way of making AI smarter. All of this leads me to think – maybe Google has a 2020 vision – dominance through AI. Maybe Google is not that great at incremental advances, and that is showing in its efforts on mobile, wearables etc as opposed to say, something like IoT and AI. But maybe, it has a longer future mapped out better. Ambient Interfaces powered by Artificial Intelligence. Search as we know it might cease to exist, but just like before, we would discover a different world through Google.
